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 · Spezial Rückblick Ausblick Was es nicht alles Neues gibt - Respekt. Das namenhafteste Währungspaar der Welt ist der EUR/USD, das Verhältnis des Euro gegenüber dem US-Dollar, der sehr empfindlich auf die Veränderungen in der Wirtschaft der Europäischen Union oder den Vereinigten Staaten reagiert. Der japanische Yen, das britische Pfund, der chinesische Yuan und andere Währungen der wichtigsten Länder sind auch sehr wichtig.

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But we’ll need some mind bending today, so let’s stretch our brains together a little to warm up. Handeln is of course related to English to handle and they both come from the old Germanic noun*handeigh which was the word for “portable phone”.

Even if it were impossible to lower unemployment below some critical level without fuelling inflation, there is uncertainty about what that critical level is. Accordingly, risk is unavoidable: But that is not the point: A calculated risk is always unavoidable. Who bears it varies with different policies, and that is a decision that cannot--or at least should not--be left to central bank technocrats.

While there is a legitimate debate about the degree of independence accorded to central banks and other decision-making bodies, within a democracy, the perspectives of those whose well-being is affected by the decisions taken should be represented in the process. A focus on inflation may make sense for countries with long histories of inflation, but not for others, like Japan.

America's central bank, the Federal Reserve, is mandated not only to ensure price stability, but also to promote growth and full employment. There is broad consensus in the US against a narrow mandate, such as that of the European Central Bank. Today, Europe's growth languishes, because the ECB is constrained by its single-minded focus on inflation from promoting economic recovery.

Technocrats and financial market players who benefit from this institutional arrangement have done an impressive job of convincing many countries of its virtues, and of the need to treat monetary policy as a technical matter that should be put above politics.

The euro has hit four-month lows against the dollar, as dismal European economic data contrasts with optimism in the United States. Den svenska kronan kommer att bli starkare om Sverige röstar nej till EMU den 14 september. De senaste dagarna har euron pendlat kring 9,20 kronor. Däremot finns det en del osäkerhet om de politiska konsekvenserna. Sverige har bättre förutsättningar för tillväxt än euroländerna. Den bedömningen gör västländernas samarbetsorganisation OECD i en färsk rapport.

För att komma till rätta med den krävs enligt OECD en mer flexibel arbetsmarknad. De flesta kriser gäller enstaka banker, som övertas av andra eller läggs ned. I första hand är det en uppgift för de nationella centralbankerna, men vid större insatser skulle även ECB-systemet med alla euroländernas centralbanker dras in. Kronan har till exempel stärkts med nästan 40 procent mot USA-dollarn.

Mot Riksbankens officiella valutakorg, TCW-index, har kronan stärkts med 15 procent sedan bottennoteringen. Mot denna korg har kronan stärkts med över 20 procent sedan bottennoteringen. In practice, the ECB has more than once trimmed borrowing costs when inflation was above target, but it has provided often-convoluted explanations which seek to demonstrate the theological consistency of its behaviour. Utom det som illustreras av diagrammet: Vid ett svenskt medlemskap kommer kronan sannolikt att knytas till euron till en kurs runt 8,, European Union leaders have confidently declared the region's economic slowdown is over.

Eurozone underlying inflation rises in May FT, June 18 Samtidigt är svenska fundamenta starka i ett internationellt perspektiv, med stora överskott i handels- och bytesbalanserna. What makes the negative impact more plausible is the extent of the recent dependence on external demand. In the year to the first quarter of , the eurozone economy expanded by only 0.

The contribution of domestic demand was minus 0. It is astonishing that so large an economic area should have been this dependent on external demand. Yet monetary easing is unlikely to generate buoyant demand, particularly in a zone with depressingly weak productivity performance. A strong appreciation would combine with low productivity growth to generate a squeeze on profitability in the internationally exposed sectors of the economy.

That is likely to undermine investment. In addition, low productivity growth is a partial explanation for the persistently weak growth of private consumption in the eurozone, particularly in Germany. This is a clash of the pygmies: The worry must be that US adjustment is reinforced, not offset, by the eurozone's response. The proponents of the euro wanted their currency and their zone to play a bigger role. They have their wish.

We shall soon know whether they know what to do with it. More about the dollar. This brings the rate within the ECB's 0 to 2 per cent target range for the first time this year.

But excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, whose prices are highly volatile and often give little indication of longer-term inflationary trends, inflation rose from 2. Inflation was highest in Ireland, at 5 per cent, and also far above the overall eurozone target ceiling in Spain, Portugal, Greece and the Netherlands. By the same measure - the so-called "harmonised index of consumer prices" - figures published on Tuesday showed inflation in the UK at only 0.

The ECB faces a painful dilemma: The official estimate of eurozone inflation has been revised up, underlining the significant deterioration in the bloc's economic outlook and prompting speculation the European Central Bank could raise interest rates as soon as next month. The upward revision of the eurozone's April inflation numbers comes on the heels of a slew of disappointing data this week, which were at odds with previous rosy predictions that inflation was set to head steadily downwards.

Eurostat, the EU statistical agency, said on Thursday that eurozone consumer prices rose by 2. Inflation was highest in Ireland, at 5 per cent, and lowest in Germany and Austria, at 1. The refusal of inflation to fall below the ECB's 2 per cent target ceiling presents a dilemma for the central bank. Det skriver Nordea i ett marknadsbrev daterat den 15 mars. Europes economy - March 14, The Economist. Since then, though, Europe's economies have stumbled. In the Netherlands, where electors go to the polls in May, GDP was flat in the last two quarters of last year.

The French economy actually contracted in the fourth quarter, for the first time in five years. Europe's sickliest economy, though, is its biggest, Germany. In the first half of , the country seemed to have at last shaken off years of torpor. Yet in the middle of that year it stalled, and it has struggled ever since, shrinking in the third and fourth quarters of Last year, German GDP grew by a measly 0. Between them, France and Germany account for more than half the output of the member euro area the EU countries that have adopted a common currency.

Not surprisingly, the whole region's GDP slid by 0. Indeed, it is hard to think of any time since the ill-fated ERM experiment, when the economic cycles of Britain and the Continent have been more out of sync. After all, there is something strange about a monetary policy that keeps interest rates much higher in the present slump than it did in the boom of , when European interest rates were set at 2.

Thus the gap between British and euro interest rates is almost certain to widen in the year ahead, but this gap vastly understates the true monetary divergence between Britain and the eurozone. If a referendum campaign were launched, currency markets would immediately start to anticipate this decline. There would be wild speculation, reminiscent of the ill-fated period before ERM entry in And that would merely maintain the present level of monetary rigour in the British economy. Once we allow for the additional inflationary pressures building up in the year ahead, as the world economy recovers, British interest rates would have to rise as high as 8 per cent or 9 per cent.

It seems unlikely that Mr Blair would propose a 5p increase in the standard rate of tax or a 20 per cent reduction in health and education spending in his euro-referendum package. Billionaire investment guru George Soros has said that it is "impossible" for Britain to reject adoption of the euro. Mr Soros, whose currency investments have earned him a formidable reputation, warned that there were still concerns over Europe's single currency.

Det är marknadens genomsnittliga bedömning, enligt Prosperas senaste undersökning. Bakom marknadens optimism ligger kronans uppsving och ökade utsikter för ett svenskt EMU-inträde. Det viktiga är inte till vilken kurs, utan att det sker. Inga genvägar till euron Behövs verkligen Svenskt Näringsliv? I dag bestäms kronans värde av marknaden. Den har fortsatt att tappa mark även mot dollarn: Bo Lundgren Veckobrev 31 januari Risken är att de blir utan argument om kronan plötsligt stärks.

Till slut handlar inte ställningstagandet om siffror, utan om Sveriges framtida roll i Europa - om vi ska vara innanför eller utanför, om vi ska vara med i EU-samarbetet eller inte. Hamburgerkursen visar kronans verkliga värde Gunnar Örn i Dagens Industri De senaste veckorna har kursen pendlat mellan 9,00 och 9,50 kronor per euro. Pionjärarbetet gjordes av riksbanksekonomerna Annika Alexius och Hans Lindberg Extern balans förutsätter att utlandsskulden inte växer under okontrollerade former.

Annika Alexius och Hans Lindberg kom fram till att kronans jämviktsväxelkurs för borde ligga kring Förklaringen, enligt SN, är att Sveriges terms-of- trade försämrats: Det intressanta är att kronans faktiska växelkurs - som bestäms helt av marknadskrafterna - verkar ha anpassats rätt väl till den teoretiska jämviktskursen.

En alternativ metod att räkna ut kronans rätta värde är att använda tidningen The Economists berömda Big Mac-index. Vid jämvikt ska en hamburgare kosta lika mycket här som i Hamburg. I Economists senaste mätning kostade en svensk Big Mac 2,63 euro. Asymmetriska chocker - ett hinder för svenskt medlemskap i EMU? The eurozone economy may have shrunk during the last three months of , but it is due for a rapid rebound, the European Commission has calculated.

Growth in gross domestic product GDP across the member eurozone over the October to December period is likely to have fallen within the range of minus 0. The yen fell nearly 10 per cent during the last two months of and is now back down in the s against the US dollar for the first time since Japanese and US authorities appear to have jointly encouraged this slide.

Tokyo says it reflects economic fundamentals; Washington hints that it favours broader monetary expansion through purchases of US Treasuries. Regrettably, the role that the euro could play in a more co-ordinated currency adjustment has been neglected. The weaker yen policy is doomed to fail if its impact on the currencies of its main trade partners, the US and the rest of Asia, is not offset by a stronger euro. Men att kronan försvinner betyder inte att inflationen gör det. Istället borde de förbättrade statsfinanserna användas för att sänka skatterna, menar Handelsbanken.

Det visar en beräkning som Dagens Industri har gjort. Euro-dollar reaches three-month Financial Times, August 13 Svenska Dagbladet om Gunnar Hökmarks odödliga tankar: EMU finns och fungerar dessutom bra, euron är stark Laffer, Wall Street Journal Regeringen bär ansvaret för att kronan försvagas. Det hävdar moderaterna i en ny rapport, där partiet anklagar regeringen Persson för att bedriva flytande devalveringspolitik.

Kronfallet är ingen valutakris Klas Eklund i SvD One World - one Currency? As perceptions grow that the world is gradually segmenting into a few regional currency blocs, the logical extension of such a trend also emerges as a theoretical possibility: If so many countries see benefits from currency integration, would a world currency not maximize these benefits?

That gap may now have almost closed, which could explain why the euro has recovered slightly over the past couple of weeks. This should have favoured rather than hurt the euro. In fact, the euro, by creating a single, more liquid capital market, has spurred corporate restructuring across Europe, as managers have been forced to pay more attention to shareholder value. Labour markets are also becoming more flexible, as a loosening of the rules has made it easier for firms to hire workers on part-time or fixed-term contracts, with less job protection and lower social-security taxes.

Across the euro area, tax rates are being trimmed and wage bargaining is becoming more decentralised. None of this is to deny that more reforms are needed - but investors and the markets have been wrong to assume that Europe can never change.

The third culprit often identified by the markets is the ECB itself, for lacking clarity in its policy goals and lacking transparency in its decision-making. The ECB has been poor at communicating with the outside world, and its president, Wim Duisenberg, seems decidedly gaffe-prone; but charges of a lack of transparency and clarity apply more to the Fed than to the ECB.

Unlike the ECB, for instance, the Fed lacks a clearly defined inflation goal, and at times Alan Greenspan is far from transparent, being a master of obfuscatory language. He gets away with it, because the markets think he can do no wrong. A Martian investor might at least wonder why an economy with the biggest current-account deficit the world has ever seen , a negative personal savings rate, record borrowing by firms and households, not to mention a dangerously overvalued stockmarket, had such a strong currency.

Financial markets believe that these imbalances can be unwound gradually, allowing the economy to land softly. The key factor is the outflow of capital from the euro zone to America and Britain. In today's globalised foreign exchange markets, it is capital movements rather than trade deficits or growth rates that count. This is partly due to the takeover of US companies by German ones, and the reason for that is that profit opportunities are better outside the euro zone.

Article 2 says that the council may "formulate general orientations" for exchange rate policy. A resolution at the Luxembourg Summit in strengthened this by resolving that "the council may, in exceptional circumstances, for example in the case of a misalignment, formulate general orientations for exchange rate policy in relation to non-EU countries".

This is such a time. It should be the first duty of the French presidency of the EU to show some leadership on this question. Trading in the euro should be suspended, and the ERM reintroduced with broad bands. The euro should be relaunched when it has proved to be stable for at least six months. This would be a drastic step and cause some loss of face to the ECB. But the euro is a new currency. There is still time before it comes into circulation as a currency.

It is thought everywhere to be a failing one. This may be unfair, but then that is the perception of the market. As Mr Volcker said to the Lords committee: This alarming deterioration might have been expected to trigger a dollar crisis that would have ended the boom, but instead foreign capital has poured in, much of it coming from continental Europe to the great embarrassment of the sponsors of the euro. One of the reasons why the eurosystem did not intervene with substantial amounts has to do with its structure.

Most of the foreign exchange reserves potentially backing up the euro are owned by the 11 national central banks. The ECB itself has only about E50bn of reserves directly at its disposal.

The remainder, worth more than Ebn, plus most of the gold, belongs to the national central banks. These reserves were accumulated during the pre-euro period when there were still 11 national currencies that needed some foreign exchange reserve backing. With the launch of the euro, however, there is no longer any reason for national central banks of the euro-zone to continue to keep more than Ebn of reserves.

As these reserves consist mostly of dollars, which are currently over- valued in a long-term perspective, there is a strong argument for disposing of them to realise the profit. But this is not a job for the ECB. The simplest way to dispose of the excess reserves at the national central banks would thus be to ask them to keep E50bn and transfer the remainder of about Ebn to national treasuries.

Keeping reserves of E50bn in the national central banks of the eurosystem is more than enough for a potential call-up by the ECB because this would allow the ECB to count on about Ebn in an emergency, about twice the sum available to US authorities. National treasuries in the euro-zone countries would then find themselves with Ebn worth of dollars. If they believe what their political representatives repeatedly assert, that the euro is massively undervalued, they should sell these dollars quickly and use the proceeds to pay off public debt.

Nearly four weeks after central bankers spent heavily to prop up Europe's common currency, the euro fell to record lows against the U. Late Wednesday in New York, the euro was changing hands at Watch the dollar, not the euro, Financial Times, October 12 The biggest flaw in the world economy is the US current account deficit, which could place a strain on the currency.

Dark clouds on the euro horizon , BBC. United States riding to the rescue of a currency hailed by many of its promoters as a potential rival to the dollar Reginald Dale International Herald Tribune September 26, It is tempting to detect a certain irony in the sight of the United States riding to the rescue of a currency hailed by many of its promoters as a potential rival to the dollar - as if Europe's bid to become an equal partner to the United States in the 21st century depended on American support.

When the Federal Reserve Board joined other central banks to support the European Union's faltering single currency last week, it looked to some as if the United States had been obliged to intervene monetarily to save a weak and feuding Europe from troubles of its own making, just as it did militarily in the Balkans.

The reality is more complicated. In the first place, U. In the second, Europe is not in such bad shape as its detractors often think.

In deciding to intervene, Washington had concluded that the fall of the euro threatened to disrupt the international economy, which would jeopardize America's economic expansion, and to sap the profitability of U. In any case, judging by the repetition of the U. The importance of U. Virtually since the single currency's birth in January , the market has regarded Europe's glass as half empty while official Europe, including the European Central Bank, has insisted that it is half full.

The pessimistic interpretation is much more common in the Anglo-Saxon circles that dominate world financial markets. Anglo-Saxons, as a whole, have consistently taken a more jaundiced view of European integration than its devotees on the Continent. The EU's enlargement is proceeding, if slowly, and there will undoubtedly be steps toward an economic government for the euro zone.

In that respect, a Danish ''no'' to the euro in this week's referendum should logically be positive for the euro, because Denmark, like Britain, is a country that, as a euro member, would resist more centralized decision-making. In any case, at some point in the future, the euro will rebound. The risk then will be that it overshoots upward, just as it has overshot downward.

It may then, ironically, be Europe's turn to support the dollar. G7 tries to save the euro September 25 To the surprise of most observers, the monetary authorities of the group of seven leading high-income countries intervened in support of the euro last Friday. This was more than surprising; it was risky.

Whether it was wise remains an open question. Yet, however good the case for intervention, the authorities will now merely succeed in losing valuable credibility if they fail to halt the euro's slide.

They can succeed if they wish: But it is unlikely, in practice, to undertake an intervention that affects US monetary policy.

An announced willingness to dispose of much of this would certainly affect the market. It could also be justified by the dollar's current value. Yet the fact that intervention can work does not ensure that it will.

The G7 has taken a big risk, in two different directions. The first is that it is not prepared to do enough. The currency is being driven down more by long-run investment outflows than by speculation.

If these outflows are sustained, the euro-zone needs to run a corresponding current account surplus to finance them. The weakness of the euro is then merely the mechanism through which this surplus is being achieved. If this outflow persists, spasmodic intervention will fail to halt the decline. The second risk is that intervention will succeed all too well.

In the past, central bank intervention has often succeeded in marking the turn in a currency. The dollar's rise could now reverse. Given the scale of the current account deficit, it could turn into a cumulative and destabilising fall. This concern is, no doubt, why US treasury secretary, Laurence Summers, insisted upon the continued US desire for a strong dollar.

It is easy to see why the authorities intervened. But having started, they must now succeed in stabilising the euro without destabilising the dollar. This is not assured. The G7 has merely made the first move in a long and complex game. One of the lessons of currency crises - and I speak from experience - is that the less politicians talk about currencies the better.

Euro battle FT, September 20, There are structural reasons for the euro's weakness. As the IMF's World Economic Outlook said, the US is seen as a better long-term bet for investment than the euro-zone, and this is reflected in capital flows.

To be effective against these forces, intervention would have to be large, and probably repeated. Given the obstacles, intervention can only be justified if the weakness of the euro is causing serious domestic economic problems.

As the IMF points out, the exchange rate is starting to create distortions, such as a diversion of investment into the traded goods sector. The difficulties of monetary management under a volatile exchange rate are also clear. Men vilken verklighet möter dem om traumat släpper? Det är samma euro som skulle förhindra att Europas valutor devalveras! Euron är bara undervärderad. Däremot vet vi mycket väl om vad som varit. Förlorad prestige är trots allt bättre än förlorad heder.

Mer av Björn von der Esch. Under samma tid har euron tappat runt 23 procent mot dollarn , och det är eurons allmänna svaghet som i huvudsak ligger bakom fredagens rekordnotering. Folkomröstningen handlar om huruvida vi ska ta tredje steget i EU: Detta är ett resonemang som alla kan föra oavsett om de röstar för eller mot att Sverige ska ta det tredje steget.

The EU is about to transform itself, de jure and de facto, into a single state. That draft will be adopted by the EU's leaders next year, and a new polity will be born. Det finns en rad myter i svensk politik. Den dominerande handlar om keynesianism, ett slags ekonomisk messianism. Hur ser det ut i verkligheten?

Keynes bok kom I alla dagens EU-länder med ett undantag var de offentliga utgifterna som andel av BNP, i genomsnitt, 18 procent. I Sverige var utgiftskvoten 12 procent. Vilket land var det? Nazi-Tyskland, det enda land som förde en strikt keynesiansk politik. Keynes skrev ut sitt recept för ett land med en sluten ekonomi; han föreskrev bl a kontroll av utrikeshandeln.

Och Sverige är en liten extremt öppen ekonomi, med stor utrikeshandel. Importen motsvarar 37 procent av BNP, exporten Om regeringen höjer barnbidrag, bostadsbidrag etc, ökar konsumtionen. Men staten och facket har sedan länge slagit ut den svenska konsumtionsvaruindustrin med löneskatter och lönelyft. Vi har ingen svensk produktion av t ex konfektion och hemelektronik. Keynesianism är meningslös som stimulanspolitik i Sverige.

Visst kan regeringen sätta in mer subventioner i bostadsbyggandet. Det enda - rättare: Men föll den brant. Sverige har förlorat i tillväxt jämfört med andra industriländer. Om man sätter BNP till har Sveriges ekonomi till växt till Fast växelkurs innebär att skillnader i produktivitet och kostnader mellan länder tas upp i produktion och sysselsättning, med arbetslöshet som följd. Rörlig växelkurs innebär att skillnaderna tas upp i växelkursen — utan arbetslöshet.

Nils-Eric Sandberg, Kristianstadsbladet, 1 juli En optimal valutaunion ska rymma länder som har ungefär samma BNP per capita och, viktigast, samma tillväxttakt. Fast växelkurs, som den före detta galna riksbanken höll, innebär att skillnader i produktivitet och kostnader mellan länder tas upp i produktion och sysselsättning, med arbetslöshet som följd. Kemister är lyckliga människor: Kemi, liksom fysik, är en experimentell vetenskap.

Detta enligt en etablerad mening. Den stämmer inte riktigt. Sovjetunionen var ett experiment med socialism. Sverige har sedan början av talet bedrivit experiment med extrema skatter och bidrag. Nu har vi en ny chans till ett unikt ekonomiskt experiment.

För dem är processen irreversibel; de har i praktiken ingen backväxel. Vi kan konstruera ett unikt monetärt laboratorium. Han skrev en bok om en europeisk monetär union. Men det blev förstadiet till euron. Han kom till slutsatsen att EG i stället borde införa en gemensam valuta som skulle användas i alla medlemsländer parallellt med de nationella valutorna. Vaubels tanke var att marknaden i varje land skulle styra valet av valuta. Människor skulle välja den nya gemensamma valutan endast om de hade större förtroende för den än för de vanliga nationella pengarna.

Sverige kan nu genomföra Vaubels uppslag. Det kan väl vara en intressant information? Huvudargumentet mot svenskt medlemskap i EMU är att vi med en egen valuta kan föra en självständig penningpolitik.

Det har Sverige gjort. Sedan har kronan fallit i värde med runt 50 procent mot dollarn, 40 procent mot franska franc, 70 procent mot D-marken, 80 procent mot schweizerfrancen.

Alla länder har inte samma tillväxttakt. Detta gäller även för Sverige. Men vi skulle nu kunna använda euron parallellt med kronan. Jaffee vid University of California, Berkeley, i Den svenska fastighetskrisen granskat den svenska bostadsmarknaden ur ett marknadsekonomiskt helhetsperspektiv. Nu har alla länder i EMU en gemensam valuta, och därmed en gemensam penningpolitik. Och därmed kommer systemet, i sitt nuvarande skick, inte att fungera.

Nils-Eric Sandberg , f d ledarskribent i DN och publicist i ekonomiska och filosofiska ämnen. Vad kan de olika centralbankerna göra? Vad kan den europeiska centralbanken, ECB, göra? Inget annat än att höja räntan. Och det bromsar aktiviteten i de europeiska ekonomierna än mer, och accelererar processen. Men han är euroskeptiker. Han medger att euron kan spela en viktig roll i Europa.

Det har den inte gjort. Och om den möts av allmän misstro blir följden en katastrof. Martino har en viktig poäng här. Den gemensamma valutan infördes mot en betydande opinion. I flera länder var en tredjedel för, en tredjedel mot, en tredjedel osäkra. Minst av eufori fanns i länder med en historiskt stark valuta, exempelvis Tyskland. Martino antydde en utväg. EU borde använda euron parallellt med de nationella valutorna.

Tyvärr kom den aldrig in ordentligt i den internationella diskussionen. Argumenten för en gemensam EU-valuta är starka. Tidigare löste de flesta länder sina problem med att devalvera. Den utvägen finns inte när alla har samma valuta. Men alla kan alltid devalvera eller revalvera realt, genom att ändra löner och därmed priser relativt konkurrentländerna.

Jag tror att den av mig högt beundrade Nils-Eric Sandberg här gör en allvarlig felbedömning. Euron har fallit mot dollarn, nästan 20 procent sedan valutan startade den 1 januari Die chinesischen Kompassnadeln zeigten nach Süden und wurden auch ' Südweiser ' genannt..

The Chinese were trading with Arab peoples and they sailed even up to the east coast of Africa and to Australia.. The Chinese compass needles pointed to the south and were also called ' south finder '.. Ein Testversion-Charakter kann sein Inventar und seinen Frachtraum nicht erweitern und kann kein Gildenleiter werden..

Ein Testversion-Charakter kann maximal Ein Testversion-Charakter kann keine Spieler in seine Gruppe einladen, die mehr als 10 Stufen über dessen aktueller Stufe sind.. A Friends Trial character will not be able to expand their inventory, cargo hold, or become a guild leader. A Friends Trial character will be restricted to 20, credits and will be unable to trade with other players.. A Friends Trial character will not be able to invite players who are more than 10 levels above their current level into groups..

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The annual comparison looked even worse - the eurozone's 0.

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The weakness of the euro is then merely the mechanism through which this surplus is being achieved.

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